The political and security situation in Afghanistan during Ashraf Ghani’s tenure bears many similarities to the situation in Iraq during Nouri al-Maliki’s tenure as Prime Minister. In the last year of Maliki’s premiership (2014), Iraqi cities fell one after another to ISIS, with the group’s forces advancing to the outskirts of the capital, Baghdad, and the Iraqi government faced imminent collapse.
Similarly, in Afghanistan, after Ashraf Ghani came to power in 2014, the fall of districts accelerated, and with the capture of Kunduz city by the Taliban, the fall of cities began. The recent fall of Ghazni city to the Taliban, news of which has been circulating since last night, is the latest case in the chain of city collapses during Ghani’s leadership. Given the strategic importance of Ghazni city and its proximity to Kabul, its fall could signal danger for the fall of other cities, including Kabul.
After Ashraf Ghani came to power in 2014, the fall of districts accelerated, and with the capture of Kunduz city by the Taliban, the fall of cities began.
The main factor in the collapse of cities and regions in both Afghanistan and Iraq is also very similar. The primary factor in Iraq was Nouri al-Maliki’s inability to manage the political and security affairs of Iraq and dissatisfaction from Kurds, Sunnis, and other social groups and political factions with his policies. The general perception among dissatisfied groups was that Maliki pursued exclusionary policies and biased approaches towards Kurds, Sunnis, and other social groups. This led to a significant decline in national unity and cohesion in Iraq, resulting in political and social fractures. As a result, ISIS and other armed groups recruited from among the dissatisfied.
In Afghanistan, the situation is similar. Dissatisfaction with Ghani’s leadership style and management, discriminatory policies, and extralegal actions have reached their peak. In the past four years, the constitution has been virtually suspended, the legitimacy of the three branches of government (executive, legislative, and judiciary) has been undermined, national institutions have lost their effectiveness, and citizens have become disillusioned with everything, even elections.
Dissatisfaction with Ghani’s leadership style and management, discriminatory policies, and extralegal actions have reached their peak.
However, the most important thing that saved the Iraqi government from collapse and the country’s descent into the clutches of extremist groups was the political wisdom of the current President of Iraq, Fuad Masum. When he took office in August 2014, he decided to remove Maliki from power and, within 18 days (by August 20), introduced Haider al-Abadi as the new Prime Minister to bring about improvements in political and security leadership.
Because Iraq had the legal and structural mechanisms that Afghanistan lacks to change political leadership through the intervention of an individual or institution, Mr. Ghani, like Nouri al-Maliki, is unlikely to relinquish power for someone else to take up political leadership.
Written by Murtaza Meraj
August 10, 2018 Kabul
You can find this article’s Farsi/Persian version here.
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